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What's the exit strategy from the monetary and fiscal easing?
In the last few months the world economy has been saved from a near-depression. That feat has been achieved by a range of extraordinary government stimulus measures: In the U.S. and in China, and to a lesser extent in Europe, Japan and other countries, governments have pumped liquidity, slashed policy rates, cut taxes, primed demand and ring-fenced and back-stopped the financial system. All of this has worked, but at a cost. Governments have been spending and borrowing like never before. The question now is: how do they stop?
This is not a simple problem. Restore normality too soon and the risk is that a weak recovery will double dip into a second and deeper recession. Restore it too late and inflation will already be ingrained.
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Consider how much has been committed and how much has been spent. In the U.S. alone, when you add up the government's liquidity support measures, its re-capitalizations of banks, its guarantees of bad assets, its extension of deposit insurance and guarantees of unsecured bank debt, at least $12 trillion has been committed, and a quarter of that has already been spent. Along with the rise in spending there has also been a very large fiscal stimulus, pushing the federal budget deficit to 13% of gross domestic product this year. (Next year, on current plans, the deficit will fall back but still amount to 10% of GDP.)
Not all the measures adopted appear on the budgetary bottom line. As well as monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, the U.S. and other governments have resorted to unconventional measures to ease monetary conditions. In the U.S., Japan and the U.K., real interest rates have been pushed down to zero, and governments have resorted to buying long-dated securities, the goal of which--only partially achieved--was to hold down long-term interest rates.
The Fed, for example, has committed to spending $1.8 trillion on longer-dated Treasury bonds and other securities, but most of this spending is money the government has printed itself, simply by creating central bank monetary base. It doesn't add to the budget deficit, although it does add to the long-term risk profile of the government doing the spending as monetization of fiscal deficit can eventually be inflationary.
This massive escalation of central government spending and borrowing was necessary. For most of last year, governments lagged well behind the curve of the unfolding crisis. For too long policymakers continued to believe that the house-price bubble was an isolated aberration that would self-correct without impacting the wider economy, and that the unprecedented growth in household indebtedness was not a matter of concern. By the final quarter of last year, however, the global economy was in freefall, with industrial production, private demand, employment and broad GDP all contracting at a rate indicating something close to depression at hand. Policymakers suddenly went into corrective overdrive in late 2008--not a moment too soon
Pittsburgh Lawyers , Rochester Lawyers
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S.E.C. Report Details Lapses i
